May 21, 2026
Mapping the Future of Continental Trade: NNAI and Brookings Launch CUSMA/USMCA and Reciprocal Trade Agreement Scenarios Modelling Project
The New North America Initiative at the University of 不良研究所鈥檚 School of Public Policy in partnership with the USMCA Project at the Brookings Institute is launching a major research initiative under the New North America Initiative (NNAI) to analyze the economic and political impacts of the upcoming Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) joint review and associated Reciprocal Trade Agreement.
The project will produce qualitative scenarios of possible agreements and accessible economic modelling of their economic impact. This will add much needed quantitative data to analyze and prepare for impacts of agreements and inform the negotiations to produce them.
The initiative began in May 2026 during an intensive, closed-door roundtable workshop held in Toronto. The session convened leading trade economists, legal scholars and public opinion experts from prominent Canadian institutions, including the University of Toronto, McGill University, Universit茅 Laval, CIGI, New York University, University of Ottawa and the C.D. Howe Institute.
Participants debated shifting market certainties, the threat of alternative U.S. tariff tracks, and the economic toll of escalating bilateral trade friction, mapping out the baseline scenarios that will anchor the forthcoming research.
"The upcoming CUSMA review isn't just a routine bureaucratic check-in; it is an unprecedented pivot point for North American supply chains,鈥 said Carlo Dade, Director of International Policy and the New North America Initiative at the School of Public Policy. 鈥淲e face two negotiations in North America, one to amend the CUSMA agreement and a second to potentially impose new tariffs. Objective data from non-government and non-commercial sources on the impacts of both scenarios is desperately needed."
The findings will be published under a dual School of Public Policy and Brookings banner, with public report launches scheduled at Brookings headquarters in Washington, D.C., and in Ottawa.
"By partnering with the Brookings Institution, we are moving past political rhetoric to give Canadian business leaders and government decision-makers the hard, independent data they need to navigate continental volatility and protect our economic architecture."
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