April 23, 2026
Forum: How Canada鈥檚 energy sector can navigate a Gulf Oil Crisis
The crisis in the Persian Gulf has sent oil prices soaring and rattled the global economy, and the industry experts at a School of Public Policy Forum event cautioned not to expect a quick return to business as usual once tensions die down.
鈥淭he oil market coming out of this will look very different than going in. Even if we got a resolution this month or in May, we are talking about a billion barrels (of crude oil) that has gone out of the system,鈥 said Jackie Forrest, Executive Director at ARC Energy Research Institute. 鈥淚n the long-term, we are going to have structurally higher prices.鈥
Forrest was part of the panel discussion titled Conflict & Commodities: Navigating the Gulf Crisis that was cohosted by the School of Public Policy and the 不良研究所 Chamber on Thursday at the University of 不良研究所 downtown campus.
The session was moderated by Chamber President and CEO Deborah Yedlin. Along with Forrest, the panel included RJ Johnston, Director of Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the School of Public Policy, and Kevin Birn, Head of Carbon Research and the Centre of Emissions Excellence, and Chief Analyst of Canadian Oil Markets, S&P Global.
All three panelists agreed the crisis in the Gulf will prompt a redrawing of the global energy supply map and resource-rich, politically stable Canada can position itself to benefit from the sudden reassessment of the investment risk in the Middle East.
鈥淐anada鈥檚 boring. Boring is really good for business when you are talking about delivering commodities that people need,鈥 said Birn.
The Persian Gulf has been a flash point in the Middle East for decades with the current hostilities beginning with U.S. and Israeli aerial attacks on Iran in late February. It quickly escalated to naval blockades by the Iranians and the Americans that have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil supply.
Fears of prolonged supply shortages 鈥 not only crude oil but LNG, fertilizers, chemicals, aluminium and other crucial materials 鈥 have reverberated in political capitals and economic centres around the world.
鈥淚 do believe there has to be a resolution here because the need is so dire,鈥 said Johnston, who cautioned about the the price tag and timeline to rebuild damaged export facilities and refining capacity in Iran and the Gulf States.
Iran has been condemned for violating international law by initiating the blockade and seeking to charge ships passing through the Strait. Birn said the right of free passage in international waters is a fundamental part of maritime law and if the U.S. or Iran insist on fees to pass through the Straight it opens 鈥渁 Pandora鈥檚 Box of problems鈥 for the flow of goods and the global economy.
All the panelists agreed Canada becomes a more secure supply option for countries in Asia hit by the blockades in the Gulf. All three also said they were encouraged by the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Canada and Government of Alberta to develop energy infrastructure to allow more access to tidewater for Canadian oil and natural gas to diversify from the U.S. market.
鈥淗opefully by summer we will have a brand-new oil pipeline going through the (regulatory review) process,鈥 said Forrest.
The panelists also agreed the federal and provincial governments need to continue collaborate more effectively to respond to the supply diversification opportunity that have emerged with the crisis in the Middle East.